Journal of Quantitative Criminology 31(1)

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, March 2015: Volume 31, Issue 1

Are Restorative Justice Conferences Effective in Reducing Repeat Offending? Findings from a Campbell Systematic Review
Lawrence W. Sherman, Heather Strang, Evan Mayo-Wilson, Daniel J. Woods & Barak Ariel

Objectives: This paper synthesizes the effects on repeat offending reported in ten eligible randomized trials of face-to-face restorative justice conferences (RJCs) between crime victims, their accused or convicted offenders, and their respective kin and communities. Methods: After an exhaustive search strategy that examined 519 studies that could have been eligible for our rigorous inclusion criteria, we found ten that did. Included studies measured recidivism by 2 years of convictions after random assignment of 1,880 accused or convicted offenders who had consented to meet their consenting victims prior to random assignment, based on “intention-to-treat” analysis. Results: Our meta-analysis found that, on average, RJCs cause a modest but highly cost-effective reduction in the frequency of repeat offending by the consenting offenders randomly assigned to participate in such a conference. A cost-effectiveness estimate for the seven United Kingdom experiments found a ratio of 3.7–8.1 times more benefit in cost of crimes prevented than the cost of delivering RJCs. Conclusion: RJCs are a cost-effective means of reducing frequency of recidivism.

Early Warning System for Temporary Crime Hot Spots
Wilpen L. Gorr & YongJei Lee

Objectives: We investigate the potential for preventing crimes at temporary hot spots in addition to chronic hot spots. Using data on serious violent crimes from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, we investigate an early warning system (EWS) for starting/stopping police deployments at temporary hot spots in coordination with constant prevention work at chronic hot spots. Methods: We estimate chronic hot spots using kernel density smoothing. We use simple rules for detecting flare-ups of temporary hot spots, predicting their persistence, deploying police, and stopping deployments. We also consider a combination program including the hottest chronic hot spots, with EWS applied to remaining areas. Using 2000–2010 data, we run computational experiments varying the size of chronic hot spots and varying rule thresholds to tune the EWS. Tradeoff curves with percentage of crimes exposed to prevention versus percentage area of the city with crime prevention workload provide tools for coordinating chronic and temporary hot spot programs. Results: The combination program is the most efficient, equitable, and responsive program. After first allocating police prevention resources to the hottest chronic hot spots, the marginal benefits of adding more chronic hot spot area is not as high as adding temporary hot spots. Chronic hot spots are limited to large commercial and adjoining residential areas. Temporary hot spots are widely scattered throughout Pittsburgh. Conclusions: Temporary hot spots exist outside of chronic hot spots and are targets for prevention as supplements to chronic hot spots. A combination program targeting both chronic and temporary hot spots is recommended.

Supported and Coerced? A Cross-site Investigation of the Effects of Social Support and Coercion on Criminal Probability
Olena Antonaccio, Charles R. Tittle, Jonathan R. Brauer & M. Zakiul Islam

Objectives: We test several principal hypotheses regarding individual criminal behavior derived from the integrated theory of Differential Coercion/Social Support (DCSS). Methods: We use random sample household survey data from 1,000 respondents in two major cities, one in Bangladesh and one in Ukraine. In our site-specific analyses, we examine bivariate associations to estimate relations between global and domain-specific social support and coercion. We use negative binomial regressions with robust standard errors to assess separate, simultaneous, and interactive effects of social support and coercion on criminal probability, and, where appropriate, mediating effects of self-control and anger. Results: Consistent with the theory, coercion and social support are found to be independent rather than being opposite ends of a single continuum, although their inverse relationship is found to be substantially weaker than the theory implies. The data also support the idea that coercion has a crime generative effect, although they provide little confirmation of hypotheses about social support and criminal probability or about social support’s interrelationship with coercion. The results do suggest that beneficial effects of social support may be more pronounced and detrimental effects of coercion weakened in the more supportive context of Bangladesh, suggesting that their effects are sensitive to macro-level socio-cultural influences. Furthermore, the effects of both social support and coercion vary across different life domains. Finally, the results provide partial support for mediation hypotheses, with anger and sometimes self-control emerging as significant mediators of relationships between coercion and violence in the Ukrainian sample. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the explanatory potential of DCSS, though the coercion part of the theory appears to be more viable than the social support part. The results suggest specific areas where theoretical refinement and clarification are needed, and they point toward some important policy implications.

Is the Shape of the Age-Crime Curve Invariant by Sex? Evidence from a National Sample with Flexible Non-parametric Modeling
Siyu Liu

Objectives: Prior theoretical scholarship makes strong assumptions about the invariance of the age-crime relationship by sex. However, scant research has evaluated this assumption. This paper asks whether the age-crime curve from age 12–30 is invariant by sex using a contemporary, nationally representative sample of youth, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (NLSY97). Methods: To address the limitations of the existing empirical literature, a novel localized modeling approach is used that does not require a priori assumptions about the shape of the age-crime curve. With a non-parametric method—B-spline regression, the study models self-report criminal behavior and arrest by sex using age as the independent variable, and its cubic spline terms to accommodate different slopes for different phases of the curve. Results: The study shows that males and females have parallel age-crime curves when modeled with self-report criminal behavior variety score but they have unique age-crime in the frequency of self-report arrest. Group-based trajectory analysis is then used to provide a deeper understanding of heterogeneity underlying the average trends. The onset patterns by sex are quite similar but the post-peak analyses using the early onset sample reveal different patterns of desistance for arrest by sex. Conclusions: The study found evidence of relatively early and faster desistance of arrest among females but little difference exists for the variety of criminal behaviors. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Erratum to: Is the Shape of the Age-Crime Curve Invariant by Sex? Evidence from a National Sample with Flexible Non-parametric Modeling
Siyu Liu

Crime and Place: A Longitudinal Examination of Street Segment Patterns in Vancouver, BC
Andrea S. N. Curman, Martin A. Andresen & Paul J. Brantingham

Objectives: To test the generalizability of previous crime and place trajectory analysis research on a different geographic location, Vancouver BC, and using alternative methods. Methods: A longitudinal analysis of a 16-year data set using the street segment as the unit of analysis. We use both the group-based trajectory model and a non-parametric cluster analysis technique termed k-means that does not require the same degree of assumptions as the group-based trajectory model. Results: The majority of street blocks in Vancouver evidence stable crime trends with a minority that reveal decreasing crime trends. The use of the k-means has a significant impact on the results of the analysis through a reduction in the number of classes, but the qualitative results are similar. Conclusions: The qualitative results of previous crime and place trajectory analyses are confirmed. Though the different trajectory analysis methods generate similar results, the non-parametric k-means model does significantly change the results. As such, any data set that does not satisfy the assumptions of the group-based trajectory model should use an alternative such as k-means.

Parolee Recidivism and Successful Treatment Completion: Comparing Hazard Models Across Propensity Methods
David J. Peters, Andy Hochstetler, Matt DeLisi & Hui-Ju Kuo

Objectives: Ascertaining the effect of treatment on recidivism is a core area of investigation in criminology and corrections research. The two objectives of the current analysis are: (1) to determine the true effect of treatment regimen completion on time to recidivism controlling for propensity to complete treatment; and (2) to examine the sensitivity of results under various propensity score methods. Methods: Drawing on the population (n = 1,270) of parolees residing in a Midwestern state, we examine the effect of completing a treatment regimen on days to recidivism (using two failure outcomes) over a 2-year period using proportional hazard models. We adjust for the propensity to complete a treatment regimen using the covariate adjustment, inverse weighting, case matching, and strata methods. Results: Completing a treatment regimen has a sizable effect at reducing recidivism risk, which grows stronger the longer offenders are on parole. This effect is consistent across treatment propensity methods. It is driven mainly by completion of alcohol and drug treatment regimens. Treatment effects are stable across two measures of recidivism (arrest/prison-return and prison-return only). Conclusions: Discussion centers on the implications for assessing treatment success in the parole population as well as on methodological implications for researchers conducting similar research. In the current analysis propensity scores produce stable results regardless of propensity method. Guidance is provided on selecting propensity methods based on data distortion, technical expertise, and presentation of results. We conclude that the covariate adjustment method is best suited for novice researchers, and the case matching method for expert researchers. The strata method is recommended for supplemental analyses. Future research should examine treatment effects reporting at least two propensity methods.