Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 52(4)

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, July 2015: Volume 52, Issue 4

Special Issue: Reimagining Broken Windows: From Theory to Policy

Reimagining Broken Windows: From Theory to Policy
Brandon C. Welsh, Anthony A. Braga, and Gerben J. N. Bruinsma

This article serves as a substantive introduction and guiding post for the journal’s special issue on “Reimagining Broken Windows: From Theory to Policy.” It describes the core concepts of the broken windows perspective, examines its theoretical underpinnings, and sets out priorities for future research and policy development. Important advancements have been made in the intellectual development and programmatic application of the broken windows perspective over the last 30 years. Some of these advancements include the measurement of disorder and experimentation of community and problem-solving strategies for policing disorder. There are also many challenges, including the need for a more consistent operationalization of disorder, a better understanding of potential mechanisms, and concerns about policy overreach in the name of broken windows. We predict that the broken windows perspective will be around for many more decades to come—its enduring qualities far exceed a smartly coined phrase.

Disorder and Decline: The State of Research
Wesley Skogan

Objectives: A significant and diverse body of research has built up during the 30+ years since the publication of Wilson and Kelling’s seminal “broken windows” article. They affected research, policy, and politics around the world. This article summarizes some of the main strands of research that have since sprung up around these and other claims. Objectives: “Broken windows” theory is an influential model of neighborhood change, but there is disagreement over whether public disorder leads to more serious crime. This article distinguishes between public and private disorder, arguing that large-scale administrative data provide new opportunities to examine broken windows theory and alternative models of neighborhood change. Method: We apply an ecometric methodology to two databases from Boston: 1,000,000+ 911 dispatches and indicators of physical disorder from 200,000+ requests for nonemergency services. Both distinguish between disorder in public and private spaces. A cross-lag longitudinal analysis was conducted using two full years of data (2011–2012). Results: The two databases provided six dimensions of physical and social disorder and crime. The cross-lag model revealed eight pathways by which one form of disorder or crime in 2011 predicted a significant increase in another in 2012. Although traditional interpretations of broken windows emphasize the role of public disorder, private conflict most strongly predicted future crime. Conclusions: Our results describe a social escalation model where future disorder and crime emerge not from public cues but from private disorder within the community, demonstrating how “big data” from administrative records, when properly measured and interpreted, represent a growing resource for studying neighborhood change.Results: This article discusses approaches to conceptualizing and measuring disorder and weighs the strengths and weaknesses of various measurement modalities. It summarizes what this research has revealed about the apparent causes and effects of disorder. Conclusion: Research documents that disorder has broad implications for public health and safety and that it is deeply implicated in the dynamics of neighborhood stability and change. Further, there is evidence that—directly and via its impact on other features of community life—disorder stimulates conventional crime.

Public and Private Spheres of Neighborhood Disorder: Assessing Pathways to Violence Using Large-scale Digital Records
Daniel Tumminelli O’Brien and Robert J. Sampson

Objectives: “Broken windows” theory is an influential model of neighborhood change, but there is disagreement over whether public disorder leads to more serious crime. This article distinguishes between public and private disorder, arguing that large-scale administrative data provide new opportunities to examine broken windows theory and alternative models of neighborhood change. Method: We apply an ecometric methodology to two databases from Boston: 1,000,000+ 911 dispatches and indicators of physical disorder from 200,000+ requests for nonemergency services. Both distinguish between disorder in public and private spaces. A cross-lag longitudinal analysis was conducted using two full years of data (2011–2012). Results: The two databases provided six dimensions of physical and social disorder and crime. The cross-lag model revealed eight pathways by which one form of disorder or crime in 2011 predicted a significant increase in another in 2012. Although traditional interpretations of broken windows emphasize the role of public disorder, private conflict most strongly predicted future crime. Conclusions: Our results describe a social escalation model where future disorder and crime emerge not from public cues but from private disorder within the community, demonstrating how “big data” from administrative records, when properly measured and interpreted, represent a growing resource for studying neighborhood change.

Where Broken Windows Should Be Fixed: Toward Identification of Areas at the Tipping Point
Wouter Steenbeek and Christian Kreis

Objectives: Introduce a systematic method to identify areas with similar levels of disorder (from serene, to “tipping,” to crime-ridden) which is crucial for a valid empirical test of Broken Windows Theory (BWT). Methods: Systematic social observation data are used of almost 2,000 locations in the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Spatially constrained hierarchical agglomerative clustering is used to aggregate individual observation locations to form homogeneous areas. Davies–Bouldin index and intraclass correlation coefficient are used to objectively identify the optimum number of clusters. Results: The newly identified areas differ from administrative neighborhoods as well as hot spots of disorder. The regionalization method provides a tentative solution to both the “zonation” and “aggregation” problems of the modifiable areal unit problem liable to affect empirical studies of BWT. Conclusions: Hot spot analysis fails to identify areas with moderate levels of disorder, which impedes testing the basic precept of BWT. Our results may partly explain why the evidence on the effectiveness of order maintenance policing remains inconclusive. We suggest that randomized controlled trials of order maintenance policing should be performed on these new areas rather than in hot spots of disorder.

Do We “See” the Same Thing? An Experimental Look into the Black Box of Disorder Perception
Sue-Ming Yang and Chih-Chao Pao

Objectives: We examine the process of disorder perception to test whether different people perceive social and physical phenomenon the same way. Methods: We use laboratory experimental methods to collect information from 361 respondents (120 police officers and 241 students). One hundred photos with various social and physical attributes were shown during the experiment to test how they affect individuals’ judgments. Specifically, we test the effects of physical signs and social traits such as the race and dress styles of social actors on disorder perception. Results: The presence of physical disorder, such as trash and graffiti, increases respondents’ ratings of disorderliness. Moreover, race and dress style had significant impacts on how respondents perceived social and physical environments. Conclusions: We challenge the perception invariant assumption behind the broken windows thesis. When only physical disorder is present, the consistency of ratings is high. When both social and physical cues are present, agreement among respondents drops to about 50 percent. Moreover, places with lower-class foreign groups are more likely to be viewed as disorderly. Thus, we caution the validity of broken windows-based policies. Future research needs to replicate the research in a more diverse society to verify the generalizability of the findings.

Can Policing Disorder Reduce Crime? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Anthony A. Braga, Brandon C. Welsh, and Cory Schnell

Objective: Crime policy scholars and practitioners have argued for years that when police address social and physical disorder in neighborhoods they can prevent serious crime, yet evaluations of the crime control effectiveness of disorder policing strategies yield conflicting results. This article reports on the results of the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of disorder policing on crime. Methods: Systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration were followed, and meta-analytic techniques were used to assess the impact of disorder policing on crime and investigate the influence of moderating variables. Results: We identified 30 randomized experimental and quasi-experimental tests of disorder policing. Our meta-analysis suggests that policing disorder strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, modest crime reduction effect. The strongest program effect sizes were generated by community and problem-solving interventions designed to change social and physical disorder conditions at particular places. Conversely, aggressive order maintenance strategies that target individual disorderly behaviors do not generate significant crime reductions. Conclusion: The types of strategies used by police departments to control disorder seem to matter, and this holds important implications for police–community relations, justice, and crime prevention. Further research is needed to understand the key programmatic elements that maximize the capacity of these strategies to prevent crime.

Understanding the Mechanisms Underlying Broken Windows Policing: The Need for Evaluation Evidence
David Weisburd, Joshua C. Hinkle, Anthony A. Braga, and Alese Wooditch

Objectives: We argue that the model underlying broken windows policing requires a developmental sequence involving reductions in fear of crime and eventual enhancement of community social controls. We investigate whether existing evaluation studies provide evidence on these mechanisms. Methods: Drawing from a larger systematic review of disorder policing, we identify six eligible studies. We use narrative review and meta-analytic methods to summarize the impacts of these interventions on fear of crime and collective efficacy (a proxy for community social controls). Findings: Disorder policing strategies do not have a significant impact on fear of crime in a meta-analysis of six studies. In the one study measuring collective efficacy, there is also not a significant outcome. Conclusions: Existing broken windows policing programs do not show evidence of influencing the key mechanisms of the broken windows model of crime prevention, though evidence is currently not persuasive. We outline four key directions for improving research in this area, namely, (1) explore the mechanisms underlying the model, not just test crime outcomes; (2) use measures of disorder distinct from crime; (3) employ longitudinal designs to better fit the developmental nature of the mechanism; and (4) include observational analyses to examine the complex nature of feedback mechanisms.

Broken Windows, Neighborhoods, and the Legitimacy of Law Enforcement or Why I Fell in and out of Love with Zimbardo
Tracey Meares

Objective: Wilson and Kelling (1982) introduced Zimbardo’s “broken windows” into the lexicon a little over 30 years ago. This article explores broken windows from a legal policy perspective, with the aim of putting forth a framework for integrating what we know (or think we know) about the potential effects of broken windows policing into our goals for improving high-crime neighborhoods. Methods: A narrative review was carried out of key social science research on the broken windows perspective. Results: The first part of the article explains the appeal of broken windows to legal theorists interested in challenging criminal law policy based on a law and economics approach. The second part reviews maturing broken windows research and evaluations of broken windows policing. The third part explains the contours of an analysis that addresses the value of broken windows policing from a legal policy perspective. Conclusion: While I remain a tentative fan of broken windows policing, I argue that the modest outcomes of broken windows policing do not justify the problems these policies create from a procedural justice context. The policy literature ignores this trade-off, and a curriculum framework that emphasizes how the criminal justice system educates citizens may offer a promising alternative.

An Author’s Brief History of an Idea
George Kelling