Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 52(5)

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2015: Volume 52, Issue 5

Can We Predict Long-term Community Crime Problems? The Estimation of Ecological Continuity to Model Risk Heterogeneity
Ralph B. Taylor, Jerry H. Ratcliffe, and Amber Perenzin

Objectives: In small-scale, intra-urban communities, do fundamental demographic correlates of crime, proven important in community criminology, link to next year’s crime levels, even after controlling for this year’s crime levels? If they do, it would imply that shifting ecologies of crime apparent after a year are driven in part by dynamics emerging from structural differentials. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this question has not yet been addressed. Methods: For Philadelphia (PA) census block groups, 2005 to 2009 data from the American Community Survey and 2009 crime counts were used to predict spatially smoothed 2010 crime counts in three different models: crime only, demographics only, and crime plus demographics. Models are tested for major personal (murder, rape-aggravated assault, and robbery) and property (burglary and motor vehicle theft) crimes. Results: For all crime types investigated except rape and homicide, crime plus demographics resulted in the best combination of prediction/simplicity based on the Bayesian Information Criterion. Socioeconomic status (SES) and racial composition linked as expected theoretically to crime changes. Conclusions: Intercommunity structural differences in power relationships, as reflected in SES and racial composition, link to later crime shifts at the same time that ongoing crime continuities link current and future crime levels. The main practical implication is that crime analysts tasked with long-term, one-year-look-ahead forecasting may benefit by considering demographic structure as well as current crime.

Co-Offender Ties and the Criminal Career: The Relationship between Co-Offender Group Structure and the Individual Offender
Brendan Lantz and Robert Hutchison

Objectives: This study aims to assess three related aspects of co-offending networks: (1) the characteristics of co-offending groups and the duration of group offending careers, (2) the impact of membership in co-offending groups on total offending and the length of individual offending careers, and (3) the impact of offender arrest (or changes in co-offending group structure) on the offending patterns of connected co-offenders. Methods: Data on sentenced burglary offenders (N = 270) in one county in Pennsylvania from 2001 to 2010 are used to examine the impact of co-offending group membership, as well as the relationship between the changing network structure and the offending patterns of connected co-offenders, within a two-level modeling framework. Results: Larger groups with more dispersed offending structures offend over the longest span. Additionally, membership in co-offending groups is associated with more total offending and a longer individual offending career. Finally, the arrest of structurally important offenders, compared to more peripheral offenders, is significantly associated with the decreased offending of connected co-offenders. Conclusions: The removal of a highly central “instigator” or “recruiter” is associated with desistance among connected co-offenders. Future research should examine the mechanisms behind these effects, and why the arrest of co-offending partners is associated with desistance.

Credit and Trust: Management of Network Ties in Illicit Drug Distribution
Kim Moeller and Sveinung Sandberg

Objectives: This study examines the use of credit, or “fronting,” in the illegal drug economy. We study how fronting affects transaction costs and insulates against law enforcement in drug distribution networks and what role fronting plays in the management of interpersonal network ties. The emphasis is on the cooperative dimension of credits. Methods: Qualitative interviews were conducted with 68 incarcerated drug dealers in Norwegian prisons. Most were mid-level dealers (66 percent), dealing with many different drugs, but amphetamines were the main drugs distributed (38 percent). Using qualitative content analysis, we explore their perspective on the fronting of illegal drugs and associated practices in the illegal drug economy. Results: We find that dealers are generally skeptical toward fronting drugs, and accepting fronted drugs, but that this practice still is common. The main reason is that the practice secures a faster turnaround. Credits are embedded in social relationships both economically and socially. Previous social relationships are often a prerequisite, but fronting is also used to build trust. Conclusion: Although transaction cost economics captures the economic dimension of credit, insights from economic sociology and in particular the social embeddedness approach are necessary to understand the interplay between economic and social factors when drugs are fronted in the illegal economy.

Mortgage Foreclosures and the Changing Mix of Crime in Micro-neighborhoods
Johanna Lacoe and Ingrid Gould Ellen

Objectives: The main objectives of the study are to estimate the impact of mortgage foreclosures on the location of criminal activity within a blockface. Drawing on routine activity theory, disorder theory, and social disorganization theory, the study explores potential mechanisms that link foreclosures to crime. Methods: To estimate the relationship between foreclosures and localized crime, we use detailed foreclosure and crime data at the blockface level in Chicago and a difference-in-difference estimation strategy. Results: Overall, mortgage foreclosures increase crime on blockfaces. Foreclosures have a larger impact on crime that occurs inside residences than on crime in the street. The impact of foreclosures on crime location varies by crime type (violent, property, and public order crime). Conclusions: The evidence supports the three main theoretical mechanisms that link foreclosure activity to local crime. The investigation of the relationship by crime location suggests that foreclosures change the relative attractiveness of indoor and outdoor locations for crime commission on the blockface.

Explaining Adolescents’ Delinquency and Substance Use: A Test of the Maturity Gap: The SNARE study
Jan Kornelis Dijkstra, Tina Kretschmer, Kim Pattiselanno, Aart Franken, Zeena Harakeh, Wilma Vollebergh, and René Veenstra

Objectives: One explanation for the increase in delinquency in adolescence is that young people are trapped in the so-called maturity gap: the discrepancy between biological and social maturation, which motivates them to engage in delinquency as a temporary means to bridge this gap by emphasizing their maturity. In the current study, we investigated to what extent the discrepancy between pubertal status (i.e., biological maturation) and autonomy in decision making (i.e., social maturation) is related to conflict with parents, which in turn predicts increasing levels of delinquency as well as substance use. Methods: Hypotheses were tested by means of path models in a longitudinal sample of adolescent boys and girls (N = 1,844; M age 13.02) from the Social Network Analyses of Risk behaviors in Early adolescence (SNARE) study using a one-year time interval. Results: Results indicate that biological maturation in interaction with social maturation predict conflict with parents, which in turn was related to higher levels of delinquency and substance use over time. No gender differences were found. Conclusions: These findings reveal that conflict with parents is an important mechanism, linking the interplay of biological and social maturation with delinquency and substance use in early adolescence for boys and girls.