Journal of Quantitative Criminology 27(1)

Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making and the Accumulation of Capital: Bringing Choice Back In
Ray Paternoster, Greg Pogarsky & Gregory Zimmerman

In this paper we relate a particular type of decision making, thoughtfully reflective decision making (TRDM) in adolescence, to successful and unsuccessful life outcomes in young adulthood. Those who are thoughtfully reflective in their decision making are more likely to consider possible alternative routes to goal attainment, weigh the costs and benefits of those alternatives, and critically revisit the decision once made to examine what went well and what went wrong. We also argue that what mediates the effect of TRDM on later life outcomes is the accumulation of capital. Those who use better decision making practices are more likely to recognize the resources provided by and make the necessary investments to accumulate human, social and cultural capital. These notions are theoretically linked to conceptions of criminal offenders as both rational planners and decision makers and as fully human agents. Using data from the Add Health data set, our hypotheses are largely confirmed. Those who are higher in TRDM as adolescents were more likely to have enrolled in or graduated from college, to be in better physical health, are more involved in civic and community affairs, less likely to commit criminal acts, use illegal drugs and be involved in heavy drinking as adults. TRDM is also positively related to the accumulation of human, social and cultural capital. Finally, a substantial part of the effect of TRDM on young adult outcomes was mediated by capital accumulation. The implications of these findings for future theory and research are discussed.

A New Twist on an Old Approach: A Random-Interaction Approach for Estimating Rates of Inter-Group Interaction
John R. Hipp, George E. Tita & Lyndsay N. Boggess

There are numerous instances in which researchers wish to measure the rate of intra- or inter-group interactions (whether positive or negative). When computing such measures as rates there is great uncertainty regarding the appropriate denominator: we analytically illustrate how the choice of the denominator when calculating such rates is not trivial and that some existing strategies create a built-in relationship between the computed rate and the group composition within the entity. Another strand of prior work only focused on the relative occurrence of intra- versus inter-group events, which does not account for the important theoretical possibility that both types of events might increase in certain social contexts. Our approach provides an advance over these earlier strategies as it allows one to take into account the relative frequency of interaction between members of different groups, but then translates this into per capita rates. We also provide an empirical example using data on inter- and intra-group robbery and aggravated assault events for block groups in a section of the city of Los Angeles to illustrate how our procedure works and to illustrate how other approaches can lead to dramatically different conclusions.

Something Old, Something New: Revisiting Competing Hypotheses of the Victimization-Offending Relationship Among Adolescents
Graham C. Ousey, Pamela Wilcox & Bonnie S. Fisher

This study revisits a familiar question regarding the relationship between victimization and offending. Using longitudinal data on middle- and high-school students, the study examines competing arguments regarding the relationship between victimization and offending embedded within the “dynamic causal” and “population heterogeneity” perspectives. The analysis begins with models that estimate the longitudinal relationship between victimization and offending without accounting for the influence of time-stable individual heterogeneity. Next, the victimization-offending relationship is reconsidered after the effects of time-stable sources of heterogeneity, and time-varying covariates are controlled. While the initial results without controls for population heterogeneity are in line with much prior research and indicate a positive link between victimization and offending, results from models that control for time-stable individual differences suggest something new: a negative, reciprocal relationship between victimization and offending. These latter results are most consistent with the notion that the oft-reported victimization-offending link is driven by a combination of dynamic causal and population heterogeneity factors. Implications of these findings for theory and future research focusing on the victimization-offending nexus are discussed.

The Effects of Genetics, the Environment, and Low Self-Control on Perceived Maternal and Paternal Socialization: Results from a Longitudinal Sample of Twins
Kevin M. Beaver

The association between parental socialization and antisocial behavior is central to much criminological theory and research. For the most part, criminologists view parental socialization as reflecting a purely social process, one that is not influenced by genetic factors. A growing body of behavioral genetic research, however, has cast doubt on this claim by revealing that environments are partially shaped by genetic factors. The current study used these findings as a springboard to examine the genetic and environmental underpinnings to various measures of perceived paternal and maternal parenting. Analysis of twin pairs drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health revealed that between 16 and 31% of the variance in perceptions of maternal attachment, maternal involvement, maternal disengagement, and maternal negativity was the result of genetic factors. Additionally, between 46 and 63% of the variance in perceptions of paternal attachment, paternal involvement, and paternal negativity was accounted for by genetic factors. The implications that these results have for criminologists are explored.

Asymmetric Loss Functions for Forecasting in Criminal Justice Settings
Richard Berk

The statistical procedures typically used for forecasting in criminal justice settings rest on symmetric loss functions. For quantitative response variables, overestimates are treated the same as underestimates. For categorical response variables, it does not matter in which class a case is inaccurately placed. In many criminal justice settings, symmetric costs are not responsive to the needs of stakeholders. It can follow that the forecasts are not responsive either. In this paper, we consider asymmetric loss functions that can lead to forecasting procedures far more sensitive to the real consequences of forecasting errors. Theoretical points are illustrated with examples using criminal justice data of the kind that might be used for “predictive policing.”

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, March 2011: Volume 27, Issue 1