Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 49(3)

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2012: Volume 49, Issue 3

The Effects of Focused Deterrence Strategies on Crime: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Evidence
Anthony A. Braga and David L. Weisburd

Objective. Focused deterrence strategies are increasingly being applied to prevent and control gang and group-involved violence, overt drug markets, and individual repeat offenders. Given the growing popularity of this approach, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the extant evaluation evidence is needed to determine the crime reduction benefits of the approach. Methods. Our examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime followed the systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration. As a preliminary examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime, the authors used a vote counting procedure. In our closer examination of program effects, meta-analyses were used to determine the size, direction, and statistical significance of the overall impact of focused deterrence strategies on crime. Results. We identified 10 quasi-experimental evaluations and 1 randomized controlled trial. Our meta-analysis suggests that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, medium-sized crime reduction effect. However, the strongest program effect sizes were generated by evaluations that used the weakest research designs. Conclusion. The authors conclude that this approach seems very promising in reducing crime but a more rigorous body of evaluation research needs to be developed. While the results of this review are very supportive of deterrence principles, the authors believe that other complementary crime control mechanisms are at work in the focused deterrence strategies described here that need to be highlighted and better understood.

Welcome to the Scene: A Study of Social Organization and Recognition among Warez Hackers
David Décary- Hétu, Carlo Morselli, and Stéphane Leman-Langlois

Objectives. This article seeks to describe and understand the social organization as well as the distribution of recognition in the online community (also known as the warez scene) of hackers who illegally distribute intellectual property online. Method. The data were collected from an online index that curates a list of illegal content that was made available between 2003 and 2009. Sutherland’s notion of behavior systems in crime as well as Boase and Wellman’s notion of network individualism are used to theorize the social organization and the distribution of recognition in the warez scene. These were then analyzed using social network theory. Results. There is a strong correlation between the productivity of the hacking groups and the recognition they receive from their peers. These findings are limited by the lack of data on the internal operations of each hacking groups and by the aggregate nature of the network matrix. Conclusions. We find that hacking groups that make this online community generally have a very limited life span as well as low production levels. They work and compete in a very distributed and democratic community where we are unable to identify clear leaders.

Effects of First-Time Imprisonment on Postprison Mortality: A 25-Year Follow-Up Study with a Matched Control Group
Anja Dirkzwager, Paul Nieuwbeerta, and Arjan Blokland

Objectives: To examine the effects of first-time imprisonment on postprison mortality. Method: Data are used from a longitudinal study examining criminal behavior and mortality over a 25-year period in a representative group of 2,297 Dutch offenders who had their criminal case adjudicated in 1977. Of these offenders, 597 were imprisoned for the first-time in their lives in 1977. The remaining 1,700 offenders got a noncustodial sentence. Ex-prisoners' mortality rates and causes of death are compared with those in the general population and those in a matched control group of non-imprisoned offenders. Propensity score matching is used to minimize selection bias. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals are used to examine whether mortality among the ex-prisoners differ significantly from the general population or from the non-imprisoned controls. Results: About 18 percent of the imprisoned offenders died over the 25-year follow-up period. Compared with the general population (age and gender adjusted), ex-prisoners are three times as likely to die during the 25-year follow-up (odds ratio [OR] = 3.21). Compared with a more appropriate control group of non-imprisoned offenders (matched on age, gender, and propensity score), ex-prisoners are no longer significantly more likely to die (OR = 1.40). Conclusions: The results of the present study emphasize the importance of constructing appropriate comparison groups when examining the effects of imprisonment on postprison mortality.

The Social Transmission of Delinquency: Effects of Peer Attitudes and Behavior Revisited
Kim C. I. M. Megens and Frank M. Weerman

While a growing number of longitudinal studies contribute to our knowledge on the relationship between delinquent peers and one’s own delinquent behavior, researchers have generally approached the issue in a restricted way: failing to identify mediating processes or to distinguish between what peers approve of and what they do. Moreover, most studies have used indirect, perceptual measurements, which may have led to biased results. The present study examines the relative effects of peer attitudes toward delinquency and peer delinquent behavior on adolescents' delinquent behavior, using social network data from the School Study of the Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR). The results suggest that peer attitudes and attitude transference play a more important role in the social transmission of delinquency than previous research has indicated. Nevertheless, the results also provide evidence for a remaining direct effect of peer delinquent behavior on adolescents' self-reported delinquency.

Motor Vehicle Recovery: A Multilevel Event History Analysis of NIBRS Data
Aki Roberts

Despite its importance for victims, and society as a whole, motor vehicle theft (MVT) recovery is rarely studied. The current research note draws on rational choice and opportunity-based perspectives, and police agency technology use, to develop and test a multilevel event history (survival) analysis model for MVT recovery. Contrary to the hypothesis that more expensive vehicles have a lower chance of recovery due to their attractiveness for permanent retention, the analysis found that recovery was least likely for incidents in which the stolen car had little value (less than $1,000), with no significant differences among the categories of $1,000 or greater. Measures of local opportunity for permanent retention MVT did not have statistically significant effects on recovery, but closer proximity to a major port or US-Mexico border crossing was associated with lower odds of recovery. Furthermore, police agency use of a stolen vehicle tracking system increased odds of recovery.