Journal of Quantitative Criminology 28(3)

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, September 2012: Volume 28, Issue 3

Seasonal Cycles in Crime, and Their Variability
David McDowall, Colin Loftin & Matthew Pate

Seasonal crime patterns have been a topic of sustained criminological research for more than a century. Results in the area are often conflicting, however, and no firm consensus exists on many points. The current study uses a long time series and a large areal sample to obtain more detailed seasonality estimates than have been available in the past. The findings show that all major crime rates exhibit seasonal behavior, and that most follow similar cycles. The existence of seasonal patterns is not explainable by monthly temperature differences between areas, but seasonality and temperature variations do interact with each other. These findings imply that seasonal fluctuations have both environmental and social components, which can combine to create different patterns from one location to another.

Neighborhood Cultural Heterogeneity and Adolescent Violence
Mark T. Berg, Eric A. Stewart, Rod K. Brunson & Ronald L. Simons

A small number of scholars have attempted to reorient current thinking about the way cultural effects operate in poor neighborhoods. Scholars argue that socioeconomic disadvantage fosters heterogeneity in cultural models. Moreover, cultural heterogeneity theoretically plays an important role in shaping adolescent decision-making in poor neighborhoods, including decisions related to violent behavior. We test these assumptions using multilevel data comprised of a sample of African-American adolescents. Our findings lend support to these arguments. In particular, the results suggested that neighborhood structural disadvantage increases the degree of disagreement or heterogeneity regarding the inappropriateness of violence. Further, exposure to cultural heterogeneity increased adolescents’ involvement in violent behavior and had a moderating influence on the link between individual frames and adolescent violent behavior.

Is Plea Bargaining in the “Shadow of the Trial” a Mirage?
Shawn D. Bushway & Allison D. Redlich

It has been well established that a “plea discount” or “trial penalty” exists, such that defendants who plead guilty receive significant sentencing discounts relative to what they would receive if convicted at trial. Theorists argue that the exact value of this plea discount is determined by bargaining “in the shadow of a trial,” meaning that plea decision-making is premised on the perceived probable outcome of a trial. In trials, the strength of the evidence against defendants greatly impacts the probability of conviction. In the present study, we estimate the probability of conviction at the individual level for those who pled guilty. We find that, contrary to the shadow of the trial model, evidentiary factors either do not impact or negatively impact the probability of conviction, which stands in stark contrast to the impact evidence has at trials. These findings suggest that plea bargain decision-making may not occur in the shadow of the trial.

Non-Response Bias with a Web-Based Survey of College Students: Differences from a Classroom Survey About Carrying Concealed Handguns
William Wells, Michael R. Cavanaugh, Jeffrey A. Bouffard & Matt R. Nobles

Internet-based and e-mail surveys represent viable administrative methods for efficiently collecting data. These methods appear to be particularly well-suited for studying college student populations, a group that has gained attention from criminologists interested in testing theories. An important concern with administering surveys with the Internet and via e-mail is that of non-response bias. Despite the appeal of online surveys, nonresponse bias associated with these methods has not been sufficiently investigated. The study described here estimates nonresponse bias associated with a web-administered survey that measured opinions about changing concealed handgun carrying laws on college campuses, items likely to elicit polarizing opinions. Results show important substantive differences between web-administered and in-class versions of the survey. Students who responded to the web survey expressed more extreme opinions and behavioral responses to a proposed policy that would allow concealed handgun carrying on campus. Survey researchers who utilize web-based administrative methods should consider using multiple sources of leverage when soliciting participation and must carefully evaluate sample representativeness.

Genetic and Environmental Overlap between Low Self-Control and Delinquency
Danielle Boisvert, John Paul Wright, Valerie Knopik & Jamie Vaske

Low self-control has emerged as a consistent and strong predictor of antisocial and delinquent behaviors. Using the twin subsample of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), genetic analyses were conducted to examine the genetic and environmental contributions to low self-control and offending as well as to their relationship with one another. The results revealed that low self-control and criminal behaviors are influenced by genetic and nonshared environmental factors with the effects of shared environmental factors being negligible. In addition, the co-variation between low self-control and criminal behaviors appears to be largely due to common genetic and nonshared environmental factors operating on both phenotypes. The implications of these findings on the current understanding of Gottfredson and Hirschi’s general theory of crime are discussed.

Exploratory Space–Time Analysis of Burglary Patterns
Sergio J. Rey, Elizabeth A. Mack & Julia Koschinsky

This paper introduces two new methods for the exploratory analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of residential burglary patterns. The first is a conditional spatial Markov chain which considers the extent to which a location’s probability of experiencing a residential burglary in a future period is related to the prevalence of residential burglaries in its surrounding neighborhood in an initial period. The second measure extends this conditional perspective to examine the joint evolution of residential burglary in a location and its surrounding neighborhood. These methods are applied to a case study of residential burglary patterns in Mesa, Arizona over the period October 2005 through December 2009. Strong patterns of spatial clustering of burglary activity are present in each year, and this clustering is found to have an important influence on both the conditional and joint evolution of burglary activity across space and time.

Scaling Criminal Offending
Gary Sweeten

This paper reviews a century of research on creating theoretically meaningful and empirically useful scales of criminal offending and illustrates their strengths and weaknesses. The history of scaling criminal offending is traced in a detailed literature review focusing on the issues of seriousness, unidimensionality, frequency, and additivity of offending. Modern practice in scaling criminal offending is measured using a survey of 130 articles published in five leading criminology journals over a two-year period that included a scale of individual offending as either an independent or dependent variable. Six scaling methods commonly used in contemporary criminological research are demonstrated and assessed using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979: dichotomous, frequency, weighted frequency, variety, summed category, and item response theory ‘theta’. The discipline of criminology has seen numerous scaling techniques introduced and forgotten. While no clearly superior method dominates the field today, the most commonly used scaling techniques are dichotomous and frequency scales, both of which are fraught with methodological pitfalls including sensitivity to the least serious offenses. Variety scales are the preferred criminal offending scale because they are relatively easy to construct, possess high reliability and validity, and are not compromised by high frequency non-serious crime types.