Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 50(3)

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2013: Volume 50, Issue 3

"A Good Man Always Knows His Limitations": The Role of Overconfidence in Criminal Offending
Thomas A. Loughran, Raymond Paternoster, Alex R. Piquero, and Jeffrey Fagan

Objectives: This study examines the prevalence of overconfidence in the perceived risk of committing crime and whether such overconfidence is related to criminal behavior. Methods: Two samples were used—a sample of high school students who committed minor offenses and a sample of serious juvenile offenders most with felony arrests. Overconfidence in risk was estimated as the difference between the perceived risk of arrest for one’s self and for a generalized other. The proportion of over- and underconfident persons were estimated in both samples, while pooled and random effects logit models were used to estimate the effect of risk on both self-reported offending and arrest within the sample of serious offenders. Results: A large proportion of youth were found to be overconfident with respect to their perceived risk, with a higher prevalence in the conventional high school sample. Within the sample of serious juvenile offenders, being overconfident about one’s own risk was found to be related to both self-reported offending and arrest, net of a base rate measure of others’ risk. Conclusions: We outline a theory of the relationship between overconfidence and crime that links overconfidence with a self-attribution bias and biased updating of perceived risk with new information.

A Longitudinal Assessment of the Impact of Foreclosure on Neighborhood Crime
Charles M. Katz, Danielle Wallace, and E. C. Hedberg

Objectives: To examine possible effects of housing foreclosure on neighborhood levels of crime and to assess temporal lags in the impact of foreclosure on neighborhood levels of crime. Methods: Longitudinal data from Glendale, Arizona, a city at the epicenter of the nation’s foreclosure problem. The authors rely on four data sources: (1) foreclosure data, (2) computer-aided dispatch (CAD)/police records management system (RMS) data, (3) U.S. census and census estimate data, and (4) land use data. Results: Foreclosure has a short-term impact, typically no more than 3 months, on total crime, property crime, and violent crime, and no more than 4 months for drug crime. Conclusions: Foreclosures do not have a long-term effect on crime in general, and have different, though modest effects on different types of crime. The relationship between foreclosure and crime is not linear in nature but rather is characterized by a temporal, short-term flux in crime.

Individual Offending, Routine Activities, and Activity Settings: Revisiting the Routine Activity Theory of General Deviance
Joel Miller

Objectives: To examine whether a diverse range of both structured and unstructured routine activities is associated with offending, and whether activities have crime-specific effects. Method: Data on 15-year-olds from the fourth wave of the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime were analyzed (minimum n = 3,064). Principal components analyses identified core routine activities. Random intercepts logistic regression models examined their associations with assault, fare evasion, shoplifting, vandalism, and drug use. Results: Core routine activities identified were hanging around with friends locally, hanging around away from home, nightlife, cultural and consumer activities, and involvement in youth clubs and sports. All had associations with offending, though effects varied by offense. For example, involvement in youth clubs and sports was positively associated with assault and fare evasion; involvement in nightlife was positively associated with assault and drug use; and hanging out with friends locally was positively associated with assault, shoplifting, and vandalism. Conclusions: It is theorized that the varied targets and facilitators present in different activity settings help account for study results. Findings are limited by the cross-sectional character of data analyzed and may be influenced by selection effects. They would benefit from further testing with longitudinal data.

Here and Gone: Anticipation and Separation Effects of Prison Visits on Inmate Infractions
Sonja E. Siennick, Daniel P. Mears, and William D. Bales

Objectives: This study examines the effect of prison visitation on the probability of inmate misconduct. Method: Our sample is an admissions cohort of over 7,000 inmates admitted to Florida correctional facilities between 2000 and 2002. The authors conducted multilevel analyses of the week-to-week association between officially recorded disciplinary infractions and prison visits, including spousal, significant other, parental, relative, and friend visits. Results: The probability of an in-prison infraction declines in anticipation of visits, increases immediately following visits, and then gradually declines to average levels. This pattern is relatively consistent across visitors and infraction types but is strongest for spousal visits and contraband infractions. More frequent visits are associated with a more rapid postvisit decline. Conclusions: If visits reduce the pains of imprisonment or increase social control, then these effects may be too short-lived to create lasting improvements in the behavior of individuals while incarcerated. Future research should attempt to replicate and explain these findings and examine the longer term effects of visitation on inmate adjustment during and after incarceration.

Explaining Temporary and Permanent Motor Vehicle Theft Rates in the United States A Crime-Specific Approach
Aki Roberts and Steven Block

Objectives: To apply crime-specific models based on differing potential offender pools and opportunity structures to temporary and permanent motor vehicle theft (MVT). Method: Using 310 U.S. cities with 50,000 or more residents, the current study developed and examined crime-specific multivariate models for temporary and permanent MVT rates. To evaluate the distinctiveness of crime-specific variables’ associations with each MVT type, the study also predicted each MVT rate via measures theoretically specific to the other. Results: Among temporary-specific variables, young male population and the percentage of households without a vehicle were positively associated with temporary MVT. Permanent-specific measures of adult male property offender pool size, percentage of households with high disposable income, unemployment, U.S.-Mexico border proximity, and auto-related businesses were associated with permanent MVT (though in an unexpected direction for disposable income). Some variables were associated with both types of MVT, but young male population was uniquely associated with temporary MVT while unemployment rate, distance to U.S.-Mexico border and number of auto-related businesses were specific to permanent MVT.Conclusions: Findings suggest that specific prevention approaches are  needed for each type of MVT. Shortcomings of the research include potential misclassification of temporary and permanent MVT and lack of some potentially important opportunity variables.