Journal of Quantitative Criminology 29(3)

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, September 2013: Volume 29, Issue 3

The Consequences of Maladaptive Coping: Integrating General Strain and Self-Control Theories to Specify a Causal Pathway Between Victimization and Offending
Jillian J. Turanovic & Travis C. Pratt

Objectives Drawing from general strain and self-control perspectives, the role of maladaptive coping (i.e., substance use) in the causal pathway between victimization and offending is explored. Specifically, the present study investigates: (1) the extent to which self-control influences substance use in response to victimization, and (2) whether victims with low self-control and who engage in substance use are more likely to commit violent offenses in the future. Methods Three waves of panel data from the Gang Resistance Education and Training program are used (N = 1,463), and negative binomial regression models are estimated to explore the interactive effects of low self-control, victimization, and substance use on violent offending. Results Victims with low self-control are more likely to engage in substance use post-victimization, and low self-control and substance use are found to exert significant conditional effects on the pathway between victimization and offending. These results remained robust even after controlling for prior violent offending, peer influences, prior substance use, and other forms of offending. Conclusions The causal pathway between victimization and offending can be explained by drawing upon key concepts drawn from self-control (i.e., how self-control shapes coping responses) and general strain (i.e., how those responses influence offending above and beyond self-control) theories, indicating that these two perspectives can and should be integrated more explicitly to explain the dynamics of victimization and offending.

Differential Effects of Parental Controls on Adolescent Substance Use: For Whom is the Family Most Important?
Abigail A. Fagan , M. Lee Van Horn , J. David Hawkins & Thomas Jaki

Objective Social control theory assumes that the ability of social constraints to deter juvenile delinquency will be invariant across individuals. This paper tests this hypothesis and examines the degree to which there are differential effects of parental controls on adolescent substance use. Methods Analyses are based on self-reported data from 7,349 10th-grade students and rely on regression mixture models to identify latent classes of individuals who may vary in the effects of parental controls on drug use. Results All parental controls were significantly related to adolescent drug use, with higher levels of control associated with less drug use. The effects of instrumental parental controls (e.g., parental management strategies) on drug use were shown to vary across individuals, while expressive controls (e.g., parent/child attachment) had uniform effects in reducing drug use. Specifically, poor family management and more favorable parental attitudes regarding children’s drug use and delinquency had stronger effects on drug use for students who reported greater attachment to their neighborhoods, less acceptance of adolescent drug use by neighborhood residents, and fewer delinquent peers, compared to those with greater community and peer risk exposure. Parental influences were also stronger for Caucasian students versus those from other racial/ethnic groups, but no differences in effects were found based on students’ gender or commitment to school. Conclusions The findings demonstrate support for social control theory, and also help to refine and add precision to this perspective by identifying groups of individuals for whom parental controls are most influential. Further, they offer an innovative methodology that can be applied to any criminological theory to examine the complex forces that result in illegal behavior.

“Fixed” Sentencing: The Effect on Imprisonment Rates Over Time
Mark G. Harmon

Objective Sentencing guidelines, statutory presumptive sentencing, determinate sentencing, truth in sentencing, and three strikes are important components of the criminal justice system. The main purpose behind a relatively-fixed sentence is to remove judicial discretion by insuring that convicted felons receive a reasonably-assumed sentence depending on the crime committed. The current study assessed shifts in year-to-year changes in incarceration rates within all 50 states from the years 1965–2008 due to the adoption of sentencing reforms. Methods The study tests two competing theories, a normative theory and critical theory of the expected effects of reforms on imprisonment. Data was analyzed using panel regression with unit-specific fixed effects, conditional change scores, panel corrected standard errors, and a new measure of reforms. Results This study, possibly due to differences in model specification, ran counter to a number of previous studies and suggests some “front-end” sentencing reforms and “back-end” release changes are, on average, related to changes in imprisonment. Conclusions The study concluded, that when significant, reforms increased more than decreased prison growth in comparison to indeterminate sentencing. Additionally, the analysis concludes that changes in release mechanisms and parole decision structures are driving increased growth more than changes in sentencing structures.

Seasonal Variation in Violent Victimization: Opportunity and the Annual Rhythm of the School Calendar
Kristin Carbone-Lopez & Janet Lauritsen

Objectives This study draws on an underused source of data on seasonality—victim surveys—to assess whether violent crime occurs with greater frequency during summer months or whether it simply becomes known to police more often, and to examine the extent to which seasonal patterns in violent crime are differentiated based on victim characteristics and location of crime. Methods Data used come from the 1993–2008 National Crime Victimization Survey. Time series regression models are estimated to describe seasonal differences in violent crime victimization and reporting rates. Results Seasonal trends in youth violence stand in contrast to the trends for young and older adults, primarily due to their high risk of victimization at and near school. No evidence of seasonality is found in the extent to which serious violence becomes known to the police. However, simple assault is significantly more likely to come to the attention of the police during the summer months, primarily due to increases in the reporting of youth violence. Conclusions Our findings confirm some of the previous work on seasonal patterns in violent crime, but also show that these patterns vary across age groups, locations, and type of violence.

The Efficacy of Ideographic Models for Geographical Offender Profiling
David Canter , Laura Hammond , Donna Youngs & Piotr Juszczak

Objectives Current ‘geographical offender profiling’ methods that predict an offender’s base location from information about where he commits his crimes have been limited by being based on aggregate distributions across a number of offenders, restricting their responsiveness to variations between individuals as well as the possibility of axially distorted distributions. The efficacy of five ideographic models (derived only from individual crime series) was therefore tested. Methods A dataset of 63 burglary series from the UK was analysed using five different ideographic models to make predictions of the likely location of an offenders home/base: (1) a Gaussian-based density analysis (kernel density estimation); (2) a regression-based analysis; (3) an application of the ‘Circle Hypothesis’; (4) a mixed Gaussian method; and (5) a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) analysis. These tests were carried out by incorporating the models into a new version of the widely utilised Dragnet geographical profiling system DragNetP. The efficacy of the models was determined using both distance and area measures. Results Results were compared between the different models and with previously reported findings employing nomothetic algorithms, Bayesian approaches and human judges. Overall the ideographic models performed better than alternate strategies and human judges. Each model was optimal for some crime series, no one model producing the best results for all series. Conclusions Although restricted to one limited sample the current study does show that these offenders vary considerably in the spatial distribution of offence location choice. This points to important differences between offenders in the morphology of their crime location choice. Mathematical models therefore need to take this into account. Such models, which do not draw on any aggregate distributions, will improve geographically based investigative decision support systems.

Self-Control Theory and Nonlinear Effects on Offending
Daniel P. Mears , Joshua C. Cochran & Kevin M. Beaver

Objectives This paper examines Gottfredson and Hirschi’s (A general theory of crime. Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1990) self-control theory and develops theoretical arguments for why self-control may have a differential effect on offending depending on the level of self-control. Methods We test the argument that the association between self-control and violent offending (n = 5,681) and non-violent offending (5,672) is nonlinear by using generalized propensity score analyses of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Results The results indicate that self-control and offending are nonlinearly related in a manner that involves two thresholds. Specifically, among individuals at the high end of the self-control spectrum, there was little evidence of an association between variation in self-control and offending. However, among individuals in the middle part of the self-control spectrum, a positive association obtained—that is, the greater the level of low self-control, the greater the likelihood of offending. Finally, among individuals at the low end of the self-control spectrum, there was, once again, little evidence of an association. Conclusions A nonlinear association between self-control and offending may exist and have implications for self-control theory and tests of it. Studies are needed to investigate further the possibility of a nonlinear association and to test empirically the mechanisms that give rise to it.